Saturday, July 9, 2011

Strategies to Fight the Regime

Dear Radwan:

Let me start my present e-mail by analyzing Bouthaina Sha'aban, the president advisor, and Rami Makhlouf's, the president cousin,  statements to the NY times. It seems both of them believed (or maybe still believe) that the uprising is finished; however, this is wrong. What happened today with the expansion of demonstrations to new cities and the increase in the number of demonstrators proved that they were wrong. I think they built their assumption on the premise that by destroying Dara’a they were sending a strong message to all Syrians. However, that backfired inside as well as outside the country. Inside the country, the people seem to be more than ever determined to take this regime out. Outside the country, the regime has lost all legitimacy (as Alain JuppĂ© stated), even among their friends (I mean particularly Turkey). Furthermore, I think they were planning to repeat what they did in Dara’a in other cities (including Homs, Al-Rastan and Banias), but they backed off in the last moment, because they figured out that they would have a big problem with the international community (remember Ardoghan words: Another Hama is not acceptable). Certainly, they are disappointed and frustrated. But, the more they are disappointed and frustrated the faster they will crack up.

Second, in his interview with the NY Times, Rami Makhlouf said “If there is no stability here, there’s no way there will be stability in Israel”. Then he continued “No way, and nobody can guarantee what will happen after, God forbid, anything happens to this regime.” Furthermore, when Anthony Shadid asked if it was a warning or a threat, Makhlouf answered: “I didn’t say war,” and continued “What I’m saying is don’t let us suffer, don’t put a lot of pressure on the president, don’t push Syria to do anything it is not happy to do.” As you see Rami Makhlouf has no connection with the reality, he does not see how big the hole in which his regime is. He is shameless blackmailing the international community with nonsense. Although the regime has lost legitimacy in the eyes of the whole international community, there are people who do still believe in this nonsense and there are others who have certain interests with regime (I will expand on this in a later e-mail). We need all people in the international community to say that regime has lost all legitimacy (what all people think, but some do not clearly say) and has become irrelevant (unfortunately, some do still believe it is). In fact, we should work to convince everybody to declare that this regime is illegitimate and irrelevant. I know it is hard, but we should try it (we can discuss that in a later e-mail).

Third, it is clear from Rami Makhlouf's statements that the decision-making apparatus within the regime is in the hands of few people and restricted to the president and his close relatives (brother, brother in-law and first-degree cousins). In other words, our country is a family-owned property and the Syrian people are merely serfs working in this property. Notably, Rami Makhlouf stated that the final decision is in Bashar’s hands, which means that he is the one that joins them and without him they lose legitimacy. Like a semicircular arch, he is the keystones and they are the support. Without him the regime collapses, and without them he cannot stand. Importantly, Bashar has many weaknesses; not the least of them what her sister Bushra described him with “stupid and nervous”. Further, Rami Makhlouf in his interview said explicitly to the international community “do not put a lot pressure on the president”, which means that Bashar is already very much stressed. Therefore, he should be our main target; we should not miss any opportunity to pressure him further till he breaks down completely. Also, without neglecting that we can hit them one with others (we can discuss that further).

Before proceeding to my next purpose, I should say that I liked very much the interviews with Bouthaina Sha'aban and Rami Makhlouf, because they show to the world how stupid these people are and through these interviews we are able to know how they think.

In order to break Bashar down, the demonstrations should continue and increase. The demonstrators should not miss any opportunity to humiliate him in public verbally (we can discuss that further). Bashar has a personality that is love-seeking and approval-seeking. In one of his speeches to the parliament (the one before the last), when the members of the parliament chanted to him “God, Syria and Bashar; that is all”, he said “And I say: God, Syria and  my people; that is all”. Look how he used the possessive pronoun “my” before the noun “people”. He used that pronoun-noun sequence, because he looks at the Syrian people as his possession; it is the possession that provides him with his immature psychological needs “love and approval”. It is his own property that endows him with his gratifications “adoration and applause”. Over the last 11 years, He increasingly believed that these are signs of real love and true admiration. During the time of his presidency, people around him were inexorably expressing to him "approbation and praise"; thus, he gradually believed that he perpetually merits these feelings and emotions. It is natural and tempting to believe that these adoration and applause are real for somebody who is shallow and does not have critical thinking. We call that in medicine “conditioning”, which means by repeating certain stimuli to people, we influence them to believe and behave in a certain manner. Today, we need to show him the truth; we need to show him that all these applause and adoration were merely a comical play. We need to show him the people’s real feeling; we need to show him the hate and despise that people really have for him. We need to deprive him from the psychological “milk” that he has been feeding on for the last 11 years. That will break the pillars of his idealized self. That will destroy the columns that support of his inner psyche. We need the people to destroy his self-image. We need people to destroy his pictures and the statues of his father with anger and rage; anger and rage are needed, because Bashsar is coward. He will feel threatened; that feeling will push him more to the corner.

Another target that will help us break Bashar up is his wife. When she got married with him, she was 25 years old. She was full of optimism, full of energy and successful. She thought that was coming to a third world country to enlighten the people there, to help them see the light and to guide them to the right path. Also, most likely somebody (her parents) told her that she can do that and it was her lifelong mission. During the last 10 years this image was reinforced in her mind. She thought that she was doing a big favor for this miserable populace. She thought that she was carrying out a big philanthropic expedition. She thought that she was the guardian angel of the poor Syrian people. Those most likely were deep believes in her mind. Of course, she was blind and most likely she still is (two months are not enough to change what ten years deeply seeded delusions, even if she really started to face the reality (however, I doubt she started to face it). She did not know that if the Syrian people are in bad condition, it is because her family in-law contributed largely to this end. She did not know that the machine inside the regime is bigger than her. She did not know that regime was using her simply to embellish its image. She did not know that her family (father and mother) also were profiting from her marriage, and probably they were enthusiastic about it from the beginning to fulfill some of their psychological needs. Accordingly, the president named one of the streets in Hama after her mother (this is a precedent nonsense in the history of humanity, similar to the one that occurred when the Roman emperor Caligula made his horse a senator). Further, to my knowledge, the former Prime Minister is a maternal relative of hers. Most of her father’s awards are coming from meetings that took place in Syria. In addition, I heard that some of the Akhras family are implicated in the regime’s corruption. Thus, we should show her what illusion she was living in. We should show her how people used her. We should break her current psychological underpinnings. We should keep pressuring her till this evil regime goes away.

Finally, we need a military humiliation to Maher. My impression the city of Der al-Zor” will be his Stalingrad. We need the people of Der al-Zor to rise up shortly. We need them to provoke him. If he decides to send his 4th battalion and the republican guards  to Der al zor, it will be the end for these units. He will not have the luxury to transport his tanks by train. Further, It will be summer; the heat will exhaust his soldiers. Most importantly, the people of Der al Zor have strategic depth in the desert and the large extension of their tribes (I can elaborate more on that); he can’t blockade the city. There he will experience military defeat. Aleppo and Damascus won’t rise up in a significant scale before seeing the military machine exhausted and humiliated. I understand them they have their commercial and industrial businesses. Their uprising will be very financially costly for them. They do not have the social support that exists in Dara’a and Der al Zor. However, without Aleppo and Damascus we can’t finish the job. Without them we can’t win.

In a future e-mail, I would like to discuss the possibility of engaging the opposition abroad, because that would be the last nail in the regime’s coffin at the international scene (if you wish, we can discuss that in details in a future e-mail).

These are some preliminary ideas on how we could fight this vicious regime. In order, to win this war, we should have our “virtual command room”. We should have our “strategic map”, construct our “tactical plans” and have different divisions with different functions. We should discuss, consider every option and periodically revise our strategies and tactical plans.

We need to win this war. We need to overcome the evil enemy for the sake of Syrian children’s future. We need to lead the ship to a safe port to console the Syrian women’s souls. We need succeed in this struggle in order for the Syrian men to regain their dignity and honor.

God bless you.


This message was sent (on May 13, 2011) to Radwadn Ziadeh via e-mail upon his request requiring some ideas how to fight the regime.

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